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Total daily energy expenditure has declined over the past three decades due to declining basal expenditure, not reduced activity expenditure.

Groups and Associations Speakman, John R.; de Jong, Jasper M. A.; Sinha, Srishti; Westerterp, Klaas R.; Yamada, Yosuke; Sagayama, Hiroyuki; Ainslie, Philip N.; Anderson, Liam J.; Arab, Lenore; Bedu-Addo, Kweku; Blanc, Stephane; Bonomi, Alberto G.; Bovet, Pascal; Brage, Soren; Buchowski, Maciej S.; Butte, Nancy F.; Camps, Stefan G. J. A.; Cooper, Jamie A.; Cooper, Richard; Das, Sai Krupa; Davies, Peter S. W.; Dugas, Lara R.; Ekelund, Ulf; Entringer, Sonja; Forrester, Terrence; Fudge, Barry W.; Gillingham, Melanie; Ghosh, Santu; Goris, Annelies H.; Gurven, Michael; Halsey, Lewis G.; Hambly, Catherine; Haisma, Hinke H.; Hoffman, Daniel; Hu, Sumei; Joosen, Annemiek M.; Kaplan, Jennifer L.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Kraus, William E.; Kushner, Robert F.; Leonard, William R.; Löf, Marie; Martin, Corby K.; Matsiko, Eric; Medin, Anine C.; Meijer, Erwin P.; Neuhouser, Marian L.; Nicklas, Theresa A.; Ojiambo, Robert M.; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H.; Plange-Rhule, Jacob; Plasqui, Guy; Prentice, Ross L.; Racette, Susan B.; Raichlen, David A.; Ravussin, Eric; Redman, Leanne M.; Roberts, Susan B.; Rudolph, Michael C.; Sardinha, Luis B.; Schuit, Albertine J.; Silva, Analiza M.; Stice, Eric; Urlacher, Samuel S.; Valenti, Giulio; Van Etten, Ludo M.; Van Mil, Edgar A.; Wood, Brian M.; Yanovski, Jack A.; Yoshida, Tsukasa; Zhang, Xueying; Murphy-Alford, Alexia J.; Loechl, Cornelia U.; Kurpad, Anura; Luke, Amy H.; Pontzer, Herman; Rodeheffer, Matthew S.; Rood, Jennifer; Schoeller, Dale A.; Wong, William W.
Nature metabolism 2023

Obesity is caused by a prolonged positive energy balance(1,2). Whether reduced energy expenditure stemming from reduced activity levels contributes is  debated(3,4). Here we show that in both sexes, total energy expenditure (TEE)  adjusted for body composition and age declined since the late 1980s, while  adjusted activity energy expenditure increased over time. We use the  International Atomic Energy Agency Doubly Labelled Water database on energy  expenditure of adults in the United States and Europe (n = 4,799) to explore  patterns in total (TEE: n = 4,799), basal (BEE: n = 1,432) and physical activity  energy expenditure (n = 1,432) over time. In males, adjusted BEE decreased  significantly, but in females this did not reach significance. A larger dataset  of basal metabolic rate (equivalent to BEE) measurements of 9,912 adults across  163 studies spanning 100 years replicates the decline in BEE in both sexes. We  conclude that increasing obesity in the United States/Europe has probably not  been fuelled by reduced physical activity leading to lowered TEE. We identify  here a decline in adjusted BEE as a previously unrecognized factor.